Canaries will feel tail effects of Tropical Storm Nadine from Friday

[Janet]

 The latest GFS (European) model has shown a radical change that would bring Nadine right over us between Sunday and Thursday, regaining strength all the while. I stress: this is a computerised model – let's hope it's wrong. JA

[Nova]

Ok I'm bringing my patio furniture in tomorrow 

[Janet]

Nadine's specific trajectory doesn't seem any clearer this morning but at the very least we should feel some of its effects from tomorrow. Aemet has raised a yellow alert for rain which is currently set from 6am Monday morning: at present it is not for torrential rain, with around 15mm per hour forecast, but these things are frequently subject to change. The least we can say is that something is coming, and it should start arriving tomorrow. JA

[El Profesor]

It seems to have split into two with half of it heading up to Northern Europe and our bit is heading back out to the central Atlantic. False alarm.
There is however a lot of rain coming up from the Western Sahara. It's going too be very wet on Monday.

But no wind.

[Janet]

That's not what GFS and the Hurricane Center are saying ..... though both are putting Nadine north of the Canaries ... 

[El Profesor]

That's not what GFS and the Hurricane Center are saying ..... though both are putting Nadine north of the Canaries ... 

I think they're a bit slow, my charts suggested yesterday that it would pass to the north ..... but today it is very much to the west and drifting away. By Thursday it will be out in the middle of the Atlantic.
But rainclouds will be drawn up from West Africa and we will be drenched on Monday and Tuesday . . . . hopefully. Not much wind at all.

[Janet]

will be interesting to see! I understood that NHC and GFS were regarded as the #1 & 2 in the world ... 

edit: the NHC as of 8am this morning is saying that Nadine is about 650 miles west-northwest of the Canaries, moving south-southeastwards towards us at around 10mph, regeneration being possible as it moves over warmer waters over next couple of days. 

[El Profesor]

will be interesting to see! I understood that NHC and GFS were regarded as the #1 & 2 in the world ... 

That would be according to whose rating?
I look at the charts my sailor friends use and I really don't think so.

..... but today it is very much to the west and drifting away. By Thursday it will be out in the middle of the Atlantic.

edit: the NHC as of 8am this morning is saying that Nadine is about 650 miles west-northwest of the Canaries, moving south-southeastwards towards us at around 10mph, regeneration being possible as it moves over warmer waters over next couple of days. 

Yes, west-north west is pretty west, and not very north.
And yes, by moving south-south east that eliminates the north bit and makes it even more west ...... but a little closer.

And the forecast is that today it will drift away to the west into the Atlantic and by Thursday it will be thousands of miles away. Meanwhile the rain (but not so much) will come up from the African coast in the south east after the weekend.
Definitely no wind.



We were lucky this time. It just came and did a little dance around us and went away ...... but who's to say it won't build up strength out there in the high seas and come back in October 

[Nova]

That is quite a different report Prof - do you have a link to the charts you're using?

[El Profesor]

That is quite a different report Prof - do you have a link to the charts you're using?

It isn't different at all.

edit: the NHC as of 8am this morning is saying that Nadine is about 650 miles west-northwest of the Canaries, moving south-southeastwards towards us at around 10mph, regeneration being possible as it moves over warmer waters over next couple of days.

This was quite true.

The difference is in the forecast
- I have been consistently contradicting Aemet's forcasting for the last two or three years and nobody has noticed (except cyberhiker, but he actually uses weather), I think people just assume I'm picking on Janet (when she is only reporting what the government says).

It originally surprised me that Aemet is so randomly inconsistent - I had supposed they would use the same data but they are so wrong so often it just seems like they are guessing. More than half the alerts they issue are erroneous and unwarranted, but they seem to be justified by the other half.
What is odd is that I can usually see when they are wrong. (I'm not very good with calimas though)

I have posted loads of times that I use Ugrib (and have done for about three years so I'm used to their squiggles and arrows) ... but you have to download their software onto your computer. This is what the sailors look at.

The storm has gone west and there will be no wind. Michael it's going to be lovely. (if it turns around and comes back nobody will ever listen to me again)