ChalkCat

New PM confirms that Spanish economy is still falling and has yet to reach rock bottom


Source: New PM confirms that Spanish economy is still falling and has yet to reach rock bottom (http://www.janetanscombe.com/news/new-pm-confirms-that-spanish-economy-still-falling-and-is-still-to-reach-rock-bottom.html)

According to Eurostat, not Spain itself, the price of a dwelling in the country rose for the first time since 2010. All politicians and economists here seemed to concur last autumn that the bottom appeared to have been turned. Let's hope they're right! Anyone buying now should get a real bargain, anyway! Idealista (http://www.idealista.com/news/archivo/2014/01/22/0711385-el-precio-de-la-vivienda-en-espana-registra-su-primera-subida-intertrimestral-desde-2010-segun-eu)

Quote from: Janet on Wed 22 Jan 2014, 09:31Anyone buying now should get a real bargain, anyway!

Not so, now you've let the cat out of the bag..

whereas if they wait because they don't know they won't get one anyway!   ::)

In China statistic anelists pump the grouthperspective for 2014/15 artificialy up,  in the EU the central banks .
# grouthaddiction . . . . .

Well it won't and cant last.
Sertainly not in Spain with 650€ basic waidge .

that's the minimum wage ... and should be multiplied by 14, not 12 ...

Minimum wage is 9,000, average in the Canaries is 12,000, and that's one of the lowest in Spain. It's not as dire as you think, and Eurostat has no reason to lie about Spain's property prices!

No but cheap loans wont last . . . .
And the future deccenia(s) wont/dont have the spending power of the past deccenia of peaple who where buying.

And still only a bit of the total propertys from the banks are sold . . . . .
More coming free in spring I know from someone in the banks .

Well its different for everybody but I have time to wayt till the next crisis that is coming ( raising of bank intersests = falling of property prices ) .

It's the crap property that's coming, P ...  and the banks have to offload it because of the terms of their bailout. That's why they're going to be giving stuff away. But I know what they have left, and therefore what's coming ... and no-one will want it apart from those who don't care a bit about where they live or its quality, and just want cheap for cheap's sake. They will then be stuck with it because it will have zero resale value. Anything that was sellable the banks have already sold.

And the people who are coming increasingly don't need mortgages. Spain will end up like many other countries where a disproportionate number of owners are not nationals of the country. None of that matters when it comes to property prices, however. I know you think they're going to drop like a stone. They aren't. The crap stuff will be written off, and the decent stuff will retain its (current low) price, and eventually start to regain some value.

Thats one thing we still have here as an ace the peaple coming for the sun and buying .

And there will always be parts that keep value , becouse of the rental income from tourists as you say.

But in property the bad crap drags the better ones also down . . . .

And I am looking for a piece of better crap , not in a realy touristic zone and also not to far on the mountain .
Anyway our rent is cheap as sayd I have time . . . . . . 

I wouldn't trust Eurostat as far as I could throw it. It may not be Spains propaganda but Eurostat has a vested interest in making the Eurozone look good. I have my house with Idealista so I watch the prices of houses and they are not going up. they are quite definitely going down. Mine has been on the market for just over a year and have knocked over €100,000 off the price and we have had one viewing, no other interest what so ever. I see other houses in the village have slashed their prices but there still for sale, many being on the books much longer than ours.

It may be diffrent in the 'tourist' market but not here in the local market. I suspect that the banks are only giving loans out to people buying houses they have on their books in order to get rid of them. I know I seem to have a very negative view on the 'crisis' and Spain and its not really like me. But I see and hear the problems first hand mixing with the locals 100% of the time and it does colour my views.

The difference is that I see nice properties ... and they have lost around a third of their value, but no more. There is also money going into the renovation of key areas as part of Canarian Government legislation, and the money is filtered through the Cabildos and on to the ayuntamientos. I know some people would be pleased to see a total collapse, either because it would mean a free property, or because they've suffered in the islands and would feel a glum satisfaction at seeing them suffer in turn ... but this is not happening.

Tourism is the difference. The banks might end up giving bankrupt crap away in the newer and rushed-finished developments in hastily-expanded towns like San Isidro, Buzanada, and the like, but decent property built by reputable builders (rather than goldrush cowboys constructing on a shoestring budget) in good areas will not lose much, if any, more of their value than has already been lost ... and that is between 30 and 50% of 2008 prices.

In terms of traditional villages (like Arafo, indeed) then I'm afraid they are paying the price now for expanding optimism linked, without justification, to the tourist market. They now have to readjust, and in my own (fairly informed experienced) opinion, they will be the ones who pay the real price of the crisis. I suspect that here, some houses will go for a third of whatever asking price was being demanded around five years ago.

The opportunity now is to buy houses in Tenerife that simply would not be available for sale in less stringent times.  There are some really nice houses on the market now that were presumably owned by established local families that have fallen on hard times.

I would get no pleasure from seeing a total collapse or get any satisfaction from seeing anyone suffer, although I do see people suffering in the North. On a personal note, I just take the whole thing on the chin. I've bought and sold several houses over the years and always made money, lucky for me. This time my luck ran out as I knew it would eventually. Whilst I won't lose money I just wont make as much as I wanted to, but as they say 'shit happens' I've enjoyed what I've done and I live in a great house so that more than make up for any loss I may or may not make.

I understand the 'Official side' trying to boost everything and talk things up its their job to do so. But when its based on stats from a EU body I have to approach it with some skepticism. A better indicator would be for the banks to publish how many mortgages have been granted and how many houses they still have on their books. How many houses have been sold and the price paid.

Just a thought, but do we think we're talking about two diffrent markets here. The tourist and expat market and the local market outside of the tourist areas? Could one market be giving a false reading to the other? Rather like the UK market London prices and Birmingham prices, for example .

Yes, they are two distinct markets, and it's when they're taken as one that both sides think the figures are nobbled! This is exactly my point in debate with poker about prices plummeting. Some will ... but others won't, and no-one will want the properties in the areas that have collapsed, or the ones still to come on the market from the banks desperate to offload them.

These were previously considered "propiedad basura" - utterly unsellable - but the banks have one arm twisted behind their backs now and have no choice but to release them onto the market. They won't affect the prices in the tourist-end of the market (or at least not much), though they'll almost certainly have a knock-on effect on other crap property currently on the market ... and also, unfortunately, on the traditional-property end of the market, because the market won't much distinguish between them.

This means that future real bargains will be either utter rubbish that no-one in their right mind would want, or village and small town traditional properties which have always piggybacked on other markets. Anyone who wants a property near the coast, or in the general tourist areas won't see much difference.

I agree with you though, G, that our house is a home and if it loses value it's no skin off our nose, apart from if one needs to sell and then the only rational response, as yours is, is to consider previous profits made on lucky investments in the past.

(I didn't have anyone here in mind with my comment about the glee in seeing a collapse ... but I've certainly come across it ... )